Research · Policy · Transformation

Economic research and
policy advisory for Africa

We work with African governments, regional institutions, UN agencies, development finance institutions, private sector organisations, consulting firms, and individuals on trade, industry, regional integration, agri-food systems and value chains, climate economics, and green transitions.

What we do

Africa's most pressing economic questions.

Africa's trade landscape is being reshaped by the African Continental Free Trade Area. Its industrial base faces pressure to modernise and decarbonise at the same time. Agricultural systems need to move up the value chain. Governments need to build financing cases that development banks will actually fund. These are not abstract challenges. They come up in ministry working groups, regional commission meetings, and investment committee rooms every week.

Umvuri Economics Consulting works on exactly these questions. We bring together rigorous economic analysis and direct institutional experience across the African development system, producing work that is technically sound and practical enough to act on.

Rigorous analysis

We apply the method the question requires. CGE modelling using GEMPACK and GTAP, econometric and statistical analysis, Random Forest and machine learning methods, financial modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, and input-output modelling. Our work meets the standard required by governments, UN agencies, development finance institutions, private sector organisations, and academic journals.

Institutional knowledge

We have worked inside the AU system, UN agencies, and across multiple African regional economic communities. We understand how decisions get made in these institutions and what kind of analysis actually gets used.

Applied, not theoretical

Our research has informed investment cases that went to DFI boards, policy frameworks that shaped ministerial positions, and programmes currently being implemented across the continent.

10
Specialist service areas
5
African RECs covered
54
African states in scope
PhD
Economics
Areas of practice

A selection of what we cover

CGE modelling and macroeconomic analysis

Trade policy simulation and AfCFTA impact assessment using GEMPACK and GTAP, fiscal and distributional modelling, and macroeconomic scenario analysis for ministries, RECs, and development finance institutions.

Trade and industrial policy

Trade competitiveness, tariff and non-tariff measures, industrial strategy formulation, value chain upgrading, and sector diagnostics across African economies.

Agri-food systems and value chains

Agri-food systems analysis, value chain mapping, supply chain development, smallholder integration, and investment case preparation from farm to export market.

Climate economics and green transition

Climate-resilient investment analysis, green industrial transformation, energy transition economics, supply chain decarbonisation, and carbon finance.

Regional economic integration

AfCFTA implementation, REC-level coordination across SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, and ECCAS, trade policy analysis, negotiation support, and regional value chain development.

Programme design, M&E, and resource mobilization

Results frameworks, logical frameworks, theories of change, monitoring and evaluation systems, concept notes, investment cases, and funding proposals for donors and DFIs.

"The most useful economic analysis is not the most sophisticated. It is the analysis that gives a decision-maker clarity on the two or three things that actually drive the outcome."

Dr. Privilage Hove, Founder

About us

Umvuri means
"one who examines."

In Shona, the word carries a sense of careful, deliberate scrutiny. That is the standard we hold our work to.

The firm

A specialist economics practice.

Umvuri Economics Consulting provides economic research and policy advisory services to African governments, the African Union Commission, regional economic communities, UN agencies, development finance institutions, private sector organisations, consulting firms, and individuals. Our work has spanned continental industrialisation frameworks, multi-country trade competitiveness programmes, agro-industrialisation initiatives across several African regions, and clean energy transition coordination in Africa.

Our work has spanned continental industrialisation frameworks, multi-country trade competitiveness programmes, agro-industrialisation initiatives across several African regions, and clean energy transition coordination in Africa. Across all of it, the standard has been the same: analysis that is technically sound and useful enough to act on.

We are based across Vienna, Austria and Gweru, Zimbabwe. Vienna keeps us close to the multilateral system. Gweru keeps us honest about what economic transformation looks like on the ground.

Founder and principal economist
Dr. Privilage Hove
Education and fellowships
PhD, Economics
Roma Tre University, Rome
Research Fellow
University of Bologna
European Institute of
Policy Research
University of Malaysia

Memberships
PANAP Network (PM0370425)

UN experience
UNIDO · IFAD · IAEA
Dr. Privilage Hove
FOUNDER · ECONOMIST

Privilage holds a PhD in Economics from Roma Tre University in Rome, where his research focused on trade policies and agri-food value chains in southern Africa. He subsequently held a research fellowship at the University of Bologna, where he worked on green transitions, climate economics, and supply chains, bringing together environmental and industrial economics in the context of African development. He has also conducted research on EU-Africa trade relations at the European Institute of Policy Research and on trade policy, statistics, and global value chains at the University of Malaysia.

His academic training spans mathematics, econometrics and applied statistics, trade policy analysis, industrial policy design, macroeconomic modelling, climate economics, risk analysis, and impact evaluation. He is proficient in CGE modelling using GEMPACK and the GTAP framework, and applies a full range of quantitative and statistical methods including econometrics using Stata and R, data analysis using Python and SQL, and machine learning methods such as Random Forest. He is a recognised member of the PANAP Network, the Pan-African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies, through which he is currently conducting a competitively funded policy study on the welfare and agri-food value chain implications of the proposed SADC Common External Tariff and AfCFTA liberalisation scenarios.

He works as an economist at UNIDO, specialising in African industrial and trade programmes and contributing to some of the continent's most significant economic initiatives. This work takes him into the processes of the African Union Commission, multiple regional economic communities, and bilateral and multilateral donor institutions. He contributes to intergovernmental processes under the AU system and to analytical work for development finance institutions across sub-Saharan Africa. Prior to his current role, Privilage worked in finance at two other UN agencies: the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This institutional background across multiple UN agencies gives him a practical understanding of how development finance, grant management, and institutional resource flows work from the inside.

Economics Mathematics Applied statistics CGE modelling GEMPACK GTAP Risk analysis Impact evaluation Trade policy Industrial policy Regional integration AfCFTA / SADC Agricultural economics Agri-food value chains Climate economics Green transitions Supply chains Resource mobilization Programme design M&E Development finance IFAD IAEA Stata R Python SQL PANAP Network
Our team

The people behind the work

Umvuri Economics Consulting brings together specialists with complementary expertise across economics, monitoring and evaluation, and development practice. Our team combines rigorous technical training with hands-on experience across Africa's development landscape.

VG
Victor Gweshe
M&E SPECIALIST

MSc in Disaster Management (NUST), BSc in Monitoring and Evaluation (Lupane State University), and BA in Development Studies (Midlands State University). Over ten years of experience designing and implementing MEAL systems across Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, and Zambia. Prior assignments include M&E system design, data quality audits, and capacity building for organisations including the Swiss Academy for Development, the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops Commission, and Africa Women Summit.

MEAL systems Results frameworks Impact evaluation Data quality assurance Capacity building Programme management
Roster
Nkosilathi Tinashe Magama
Nkosilathi Tinashe Magama
PROJECTS ASSOCIATE
Clients and partners

Who we work with

African governments

National ministries of finance, planning, trade, industry, and agriculture across sub-Saharan Africa seeking independent economic analysis and policy advisory support.

African Union Commission

The AUC and its specialised technical committees on trade, industry, agriculture, and economic integration at continental level.

Regional economic communities

SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, ECCAS, and other RECs working on trade policy, regional industrialisation, agricultural transformation, and economic integration.

UN agencies and development partners

UN agencies, bilateral donors, and development finance institutions requiring rigorous economic analysis to inform programme design, resource mobilization, and investment decisions.

Services

Ten areas.
All backed by real work.

Each service area below reflects work we have actually carried out, not capabilities listed for the sake of completeness.

Service portfolio

What we offer

01

Economic research and analysis

Sector analyses, policy impact assessments, econometric studies, and literature reviews produced to the standard required for government decision-making, DFI submissions, and peer-reviewed publication.

02

CGE modelling and macroeconomic analysis

Computable General Equilibrium modelling using GEMPACK and the GTAP framework, applied to trade policy simulation, AfCFTA tariff scenario analysis, regional integration impact assessment, fiscal policy evaluation, and distributional and poverty impact modelling for governments, RECs, and development banks.

03

Trade and industrial policy advisory

Advisory on trade competitiveness, tariff and non-tariff measures, quality infrastructure, standards, and value chain upgrading, covering the practical policy instruments available to African governments and regional institutions.

04

Regional economic integration

Support for AfCFTA implementation and REC-level coordination across SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, and ECCAS, including trade policy analysis, negotiation support, and identification of regional value chain opportunities.

05

Agri-food systems and value chains

Agricultural economics, food systems analysis, agri-food value chain mapping, supply chain development, and investment case preparation for agricultural transformation at national and regional level. We work from smallholder production through to export market integration.

06

Agro-industrialisation and rural transformation

Agro-industrial corridor development, rural-urban economic linkages, agri-processing investment analysis, and analytical support for AU and REC-led agro-industrialisation programmes.

07

Industrial policy design and implementation

Industrial strategy formulation, sector diagnostics, industrial park and special economic zone analysis, and the design of institutional frameworks for national and regional industrialisation programmes.

08

Climate economics and green transition

Climate-resilient investment analysis, the economics of green industrial transformation, energy transition policy, supply chain decarbonisation, and carbon finance for governments and institutions navigating industrialisation under climate constraint.

09

Climate research and environmental modelling

Quantitative climate impact research using statistical and machine learning methods, including Random Forest modelling for crop suitability analysis, climate-agriculture interaction research, and environmental economics assessments across African agroecological zones.

10

Programme design, M&E, and resource mobilization

Results frameworks, logical frameworks, theories of change, monitoring and evaluation systems, concept notes, investment cases, and funding proposals for governments, RECs, and development institutions seeking financing from African development banks, the European Commission, bilateral donors, and other DFIs.

Our work

Selected engagements
from our portfolio

A selection of the programmes, research projects, and policy engagements we have contributed to directly.

Ongoing projects

Current work

ACTIVE 2025 — 2026

SADC Common External Tariff and AfCFTA liberalisation — PANAP Policy Study

Competitively selected by the Pan-African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP) under the EU-funded StEPPFoS project to conduct the first value-added-based CGE assessment of the proposed SADC Common External Tariff and its interaction with AfCFTA liberalisation scenarios. The study applies the GTAP-VA module and GTAP MRIO Database Version 10 to compute the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and the Foreign Value-Added Trade Restrictiveness Index at bilateral and sectoral levels across five SADC member states: Botswana, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Deliverables include an inception report, interim technical note, draft final report, final report, and a policy brief for SADC and AU policymakers. Funded by Agrinatura and the European Union.

CGE modellingTrade policySADCAfCFTAEU fundedPANAP
Selected engagements

From the portfolio

Continental industrialisation framework, sub-Saharan Africa

We contributed to the development of a continental industrialisation framework covering 54 African states, working with a UN agency and the African Union Commission. The work covered post-proclamation implementation planning, financial framework design, technical briefings for Member States, and substantive inputs to governing body documentation at intergovernmental level.

Industrial policyAfrican UnionContinental

Multi-country trade competitiveness programme, five African RECs

We supported coordination of a large-scale EU-funded trade competitiveness programme implemented jointly by two international organisations across five regional economic communities. The work covered grant compliance monitoring, consortium management, and steering committee coordination across multiple regional components covering quality infrastructure, standards, and enterprise upgrading.

Trade policyRegional integrationEU funded

Continental agro-industrialisation programme, African Union

We led the analytical and strategic support work under the first programme cluster of an AU-led agro-industrialisation programme. This covered investment case development for agro-industrial corridors, supply chain analysis, strategic positioning within the Africa-China cooperation framework, and resource mobilization documentation for senior AU Commission officials.

Agro-industrialisationAgricultural value chainsAfrican Union

Green transitions, climate economics, and supply chains — University of Bologna

A research project funded under the NextGenerationEU PNRR framework, focused on the economics of green transitions, climate economics, and supply chain transformation. The work produced policy briefs and research outputs for institutional audiences as part of a multi-institutional EU-funded research programme.

Green transitionsClimate economicsSupply chainsNextGenerationEUPNRR

Clean energy transition coordination, Central Africa

We supported the coordination of a regional clean energy centre and an associated network of research institutions for energy transition in Africa. The work covered EU and bilateral donor reporting, integration with a global network of sustainable energy centres, and follow-up on a validated business plan and minimum energy performance standards initiative across member states.

Energy transitionClimate economicsCentral Africa

Climate-resilient crop suitability modelling, Zimbabwe

A research project applying Random Forest predictive modelling to assess climate-resilient crop suitability in Zimbabwe under different climate scenarios, covering food crops and export crops within a species distribution modelling framework. The results inform agricultural adaptation investment decisions across southern Africa.

Agricultural economicsClimate researchZimbabwe
Insights

Writing on Africa's
economic transformation

Analysis and commentary on trade, industry, agriculture, regional integration, and climate economics, written for people who work in this space.

Recent writing

From the desk

May2026

A continental industrialisation decade has been declared. The harder work starts now.

The proclamation of a new industrial development decade for Africa at the UN General Assembly was the result of sustained advocacy across the AU system and Member States. What follows, including the Programme of Action, governance architecture, and financing, will determine whether the decade means anything by its end. We walk through the post-proclamation roadmap and where the critical pressure points are in the next 18 months.

Apr2026

Five years of AfCFTA: what the CGE evidence says about who is benefiting

The welfare gains from AfCFTA implementation are real and the CGE literature is fairly consistent on that. What it is less consistent on is who captures those gains and under what conditions. We look at simulation results across different country typologies and sectors, and examine what targeted policy interventions the evidence actually supports.

Mar2026

African agri-food value chains and the AfCFTA opportunity: where the gains are and what it takes to capture them

Agricultural value chains remain the largest untapped opportunity in African trade integration. AfCFTA creates the framework. But the gains will not flow automatically. We look at where agri-food value chain development is most likely to deliver measurable economic returns and what policy and investment conditions make the difference.

Feb2026

Green transitions and African supply chains: the opportunity in the disruption

Global supply chains are being restructured around sustainability requirements. For many African exporters, this looks like a threat. It is also an opportunity, if the right policy and investment conditions are in place. Drawing on research conducted at the University of Bologna, we examine which sectors and value chains are best positioned to benefit from the global green transition.

Jan2026

Random Forest modelling and crop resilience in Zimbabwe: findings and limitations

A plain-language summary of our peer-reviewed research applying Random Forest predictive modelling to climate-resilient crop suitability in Zimbabwe. We cover what the model found, what it cannot tell us, and what the findings mean for agricultural investment priorities across southern Africa.

Dec2025

Building clean energy institutions in Central Africa: what early implementation tells us

Early experience with regional clean energy centres and research networks in Central Africa points to consistent institutional challenges around financing continuity, technical capacity, and the relationship between regional centres and national member states. This note draws on direct coordination experience to examine what a functional clean energy transition architecture for the sub-region actually needs.

Contact

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we can help with?

Tell us what you are trying to do. We will tell you honestly whether we are the right fit.

Find us

Contact details

We take on research commissions, policy advisory engagements, and longer programme support arrangements. If you are at an early stage and not sure what you need, a conversation is a good place to start.

Vienna, Austria
Gweru, Zimbabwe
Response time
We respond to all enquiries within two business days.
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Publications

Research and
published work

Peer-reviewed articles, working papers, and policy briefs from our research across trade economics, agricultural systems, and climate economics.

Journal articles

Peer-reviewed research

TBC
An Assessment of the Effect of the Common External Tariff on Imports for Export
Hove, P. · Forthcoming
Forthcoming
2026
Climate-Resilient Crop Suitability in Zimbabwe: A Random Forest Modelling Approach
Hove, P. et al. · In progress · 2026
In progress
2025
Regional Economic Integration and Global Value Chains: An Analysis of the SADC Customs Union on Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains
Hove, P. · 2025
Download PDF View journal page
2024
SADC Customs Union and Non-Agri Food Global Value Chains: A Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis
Hove, P. · 2024
Download PDF View journal page
2023
An Analysis of EU-Zimbabwe Trade Relations and Their Impact on Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains, 2000–2015
Hove, P. · 2023
Download PDF View journal page
Working papers

Working papers and research notes

2026
Title of working paper in sentence case
Hove, P. · Umvuri Economics Consulting Working Paper · Month Year
Download PDF
Policy briefs

Policy briefs and advisory notes

2026
Title of policy brief in sentence case
Hove, P. · Prepared for [Institution / Event] · Month Year
Download PDF

To add a new publication, send the title, authors, journal or institution, year, and a PDF link to info@umvurieconomics.com and the page will be updated within 48 hours.